Thursday, May 2, 2019

What is going on in Libya?! -Tripoli war!- Haftar attack on Tripoli!

Libyan situation has been complicated for years till now , but recently it escalated ,so what on earth is going on there !
to better understand situation in Libya we should know who are the key players in there !
            1-"khalifa haftar"(Libyan army general) , the guy was an officer in "Gaddafi" army ,he was sent to Chad to fight for "Gaddafi" ,after that he was captured there for many years till CIA released him from capture and kept him in united states (for unknown reason till recently) and soon the 2011 uprisings in Arab World reached Libya then we surprisingly saw Khalifa back to stage in Libya ,He was fighting against"Gaddafi",
 (as a revenge for letting him back without help in Chad -you can say-  after "Gaddafi" was down Khalifa was controlling some small cities with his militia in eastern Libya where were oil to fund his street wars ,
 Mean while in Egypt after Muslim Brother Hood were taken down by the army there ,Islamic groups in Libya hurried for help and caused disturbances in Egypt , Cairo had no choice but to cooperate was Hafter and increase his power to better control the borders with Egypt ,Hafter power rose markedly and his militia converted into a small army -the biggest in Libya- he took over whole eastern Libyan side but not the capital tripoli ;
...........mean while in tripoli UN has decided that 2-"fayez al-sarraj" would be the elected president of Libya and soon after the parliament was also elected - Islamic groups were in between them and had their own militias also in tripoli and thoughts were rushed that they control there even they control Fayez himself -
Egypt was supporting Haftar    -the man who was protecting its borders- with few machine guns ,armored vehicles, ammo and few air strikes and where  Egypt goes Saudi Arabia and UAE go (as they have -close understanding- of the situation in the area of middle east ,while Qatar was supporting the militias tripoli and where Qatar goes Turkey goes ,During whole these events ,European union didn't care but for the middle and south African immigrants who were taking advantage of loose Libyan borders  as a passage to Europe .
That situation held like that for nearly 3 years till April  2019  when Khalifa's power rose markedly and cooperated with a strong man in western Libya with the help of Egyptian intelligent service and decided to take over Tripoli .
situation in there now :
all proofs say that Hafter will take over Tripoli sooner or later (he has the strongest army ,air strikes and secret services help from Egypt ,lots of money from Saudi Arabia and UAE and even Russian and American approve on his military action ) he is surrounding Tripoli from east and south while his guy is surrounding it from west ,street wars are going on there right now he is making advances in there  while the counter militias are doing hopeless maneuvers by attacking facilities that have fallen in hands of Hafter then withdraw from them .
Neither Qatar nor Turkey can help their militias from the sea since Egypt is there with its fleet ,
at the start of the fights over tripoli Qatar foreign minister held meeting in Italy playing on the line of the immigrants who gonna leak to it during the fights hoping that Italy would interfere ,few days ago -during Belt and Road initiative in Beijing China- Italian prime minister met with the president of Egypt -El-Sisi- to discuss that situation .
My personal expectation that Hafter will take over tripoli in the next few months.

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